IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.9	#298
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.1	#109
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#316

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.2	#238

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.9%	5.0%	2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.4	15.6

.500 or above	15.5%	30.5%	11.0%
.500 or above in Conference	40.4%	52.3%	36.9%
Conference Champion	2.1%	3.7%	1.6%
Last Place in Conference	21.3%	14.6%	23.3%

First Four	1.5%	1.9%	1.4%
First Round	2.2%	4.1%	1.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Neutral) - 22.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 12
Quad 4	7 - 7	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	159	San Diego	L	68-76	23%
Nov 27, 2020	252	Portland St.	L	77-79	42%
Nov 28, 2020	68	@ Washington	L	63-82	4%
Dec 03, 2020	263	Portland	L	71-73	43%
Dec 08, 2020	159	@ San Diego	L	67-78	16%
Dec 19, 2020	138	Pacific	L	64-70	29%
Dec 22, 2020	91	@ San Francisco	L	64-81	8%
Dec 27, 2020	308	Cal St. Northridge	W	79-75	63%
Dec 28, 2020	308	Cal St. Northridge	W	79-75	63%
Jan 01, 2021	141	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	62-74	15%
Jan 02, 2021	141	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	62-74	15%
Jan 08, 2021	228	Long Beach St.	L	74-75	48%
Jan 09, 2021	228	Long Beach St.	L	74-75	49%
Jan 15, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	L	68-76	26%
Jan 16, 2021	204	@ UC Davis	L	68-76	25%
Jan 22, 2021	200	Hawaii	L	70-72	42%
Jan 23, 2021	200	Hawaii	L	70-72	43%
Jan 29, 2021	214	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-70	27%
Jan 30, 2021	214	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-70	27%
Feb 05, 2021	208	UC Riverside	L	63-65	45%
Feb 06, 2021	208	UC Riverside	L	63-65	44%
Feb 12, 2021	315	@ Cal Poly	L	71-72	47%
Feb 13, 2021	315	@ Cal Poly	L	71-72	48%
Feb 19, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	66-74	25%
Feb 20, 2021	119	UC Irvine	L	66-74	25%
Mar 05, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	60-66	30%
Mar 06, 2021	232	@ UC San Diego	L	60-66	30%
Projected Record						9 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.2		2.0	1st
2nd											0.1	0.6	1.4	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0		4.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.3	2.6	1.7	0.4	0.1				6.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.0	3.3	2.0	0.4	0.0					8.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.5	4.3	1.9	0.4							9.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	3.2	4.8	2.4	0.3	0.0							11.5	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.9	5.5	2.7	0.4									13.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.8	5.0	5.7	2.2	0.3	0.0									15.2	8th
9th		0.1	0.8	3.0	5.2	4.5	1.7	0.2	0.0										15.4	9th
10th	0.8	2.4	3.9	3.9	2.6	0.7	0.1												14.3	10th

Total	0.8	2.4	4.7	7.1	9.7	11.2	12.1	11.5	10.6	9.3	6.9	5.7	3.7	2.1	1.3	0.5	0.2			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	95.9%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-1	85.1%	0.5		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-2	45.2%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
13-3	21.9%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-4	6.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-5	0.6%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.2%		16.2%	16.2%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
15-1	0.5%		23.3%	23.3%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
14-2	1.3%		25.7%	25.7%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.0
13-3	2.1%		15.8%	15.8%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	1.8
12-4	3.7%		11.1%	11.1%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	3.3
11-5	5.7%		6.2%	6.2%		15.8																0.1	0.3	5.3
10-6	6.9%		7.0%	7.0%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.4	6.4
9-7	9.3%		3.4%	3.4%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	9.0
8-8	10.6%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.2	10.4
7-9	11.5%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	11.3
6-10	12.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
5-11	11.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
4-12	9.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
3-13	7.1%																							7.1
2-14	4.7%																							4.7
1-15	2.4%																							2.4
0-16	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		2.9%	2.9%	0.0%	15.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	2.0	97.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%